Executive Summary: ‍

This executive summary highlights several key issues related to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Firstly, Russia has issued a stark warning to Ukraine's NATO ally, indicating a potential escalation of the conflict. Secondly, the Kursk operation aims to stop Russian advances and improve Ukraine's negotiating position, according to Putin. Thirdly, Ukrainian forces have conducted a raid into Russia, drawing forces recently deployed inside Ukraine. Additionally, there are concerns about the impact of the conflict on energy supplies, with Austria warning of potential gas supply disruptions and French imports of Russia's liquified natural gas surging. There are also reports of Ukraine's ATACMS and drone strikes targeting Russia's key southern oil hubs.

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