Geopolitical analysis is rooted in the flow of history, in understanding not only how the past shapes the present and future, but how interpretations of the past also impact the path forward.
Calendar years, however artificial, provide us with a desire and opportunity to look back upon the past, even as we look to the future. We also seem to love lists and ranks, as a way to put order and structure to an ever-changing and at times chaotic world.
In looking back at 2024, we found it difficult to identify the top five events that most impacted global geopolitics - both because so much happened during the year, and because so many discrete events were tied together making any singular event often less significant than the sum of the whole. Nonetheless, here are the top five events (or trends) that we feel had the most geopolitical significant impacts over the past year.
5. Weakening of International Cooperation
The COP29 summit saw lower promises of financing to developing countries than they hoped, stripped out language of the transition away from fossil fuels, and generally reflected the regression of international cooperation in the face of national-level reassessments of energy and economic policies. 2024 saw a continuation of moves by countries and regional blocs to implement protectionist and national content requirement measures, further eroding global norms on trade and market access as national and economic security become synonymous. Finally, the UN response to security crises around the world was relatively weak and ineffective as the international body has been unable to adapt to the growing rifts among the permanent Security Council members, and participation in new peacekeeping and conflict mediation efforts flags.
4. Lingering COVID-19 economic hangover
The post COVID economic recovery remained a mixed bag internationally, as countries continued to struggle with inflation and constrained economic growth. Even in places where the broader economic recovery is well underway, societies continue to identify the lingering problems, rather than any broader successes - something reflected in many of the elections over the year that largely rejected the status quo. China in particular continued to see slow economic recovery, where economic reform and slower growth rates were paralleled by increasingly tight controls over information and an expanding crackdown on corruption that has even nabbed President Xi Jinping’s appointees and allies. Around the world, economic realities shaped everything from energy and climate policies to options for military expenditures to domestic labor and retirement policies.
3. Reframing the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
There was no single incident that itself defined the evolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict this year. Ukrainian forces invaded Russia’s Kursk region, North Korea deployed thousands of forces to Russia, the United States allowed the use of longer-range U.S.-supplied weapons by Ukraine, and Russia used a conventionally armed MIRV IRBM, the first such use of what has thus far been a nuclear weapons technology. This showcased a rising threat from the active use of weapons that can be configured for nuclear or conventional warheads, something that complicates deterrence and response. The combination of the re-emergence of IRBMs and dual use missile systems with China’s nuclear breakout is redefining nuclear posture among the large powers, and reawakening the pursuit of nuclear weapons by smaller powers.
2. Israel, Iran, Turkey, and the reshaping of the Middle East
As with the conflict in Ukraine, there are numerous overlapping dynamics that have led to a major reshaping of the security and political environment in the Levant and beyond. Israel and Iran both broke “red lines” in reciprocal strikes on one another’s territories. Israel expanded its military operations well beyond Gaza, the Syrian regime collapses, and Iran’s strategic positioning was significantly eroded. As Israel seeks to capitalize on Iranian constraints, Turkey is steadily expanding its own regional influence, building on its successes in past years in the Caucasus and now extending them into Syria. The last few years has seen a significant reshaping of the uneasy balance between Iran, Turkey, and Russia where their respective spheres of influence intersect, and is reshaping the overall power balance between Turkey, the Gulf Arab Sunni states, and Shia Iran.
1. A loss of Western Leadership
Perhaps the most geopolitically significant event of the year was not a single event, but a series of elections, crises, and missteps that has left the traditional Western world without a clear center of gravity or core leadership. The French and German governments are weak, the U.S. government transition is seen as referencing national self-interest over internationalist interests, and allied governments in Canada, Japan, and South Korea all faced internal challenges. There is little that defines a common set of goals or ideals for the erstwhile West, adding to the erosion of global norms. At the same time, there is no counter-pole forming in the “East,” as China deals with its own internal economic issues, Russia sees its peripheral influence wane, and the smaller partners (Iran and North Korea) are largely positioning for their own self-interest.
Closing Thought
In short, what we saw in 2024 was the solidification of a multipolar world system, ending the post-Cold War dynamics and returning the world to a more “normal” structure where national self interest re-emerges ahead of internationalism, where protectionism and economic security is seen as a necessity and strength, and where short-term dynamics will define international relations for some time.
