New York, NY – RANE (Risk Assistance Network + Exchange) identifies the core trends and constraints that will shape global developments in the 2021 Annual Geopolitical Forecast, now available on Stratfor Worldview.
Fresh from the end-of-year vaccine rollouts, the first half of 2021 will still be defined by the coronavirus pandemic. But thanks to those vaccines, the global economy will begin to reawaken, with China leading the way. Recovery elsewhere is expected to be uneven, and much of the world will not reach pre-pandemic levels of GDP until 2022, including the United States and Europe.
A "two-speed" economic recovery will occur in Europe, opening the door for civil unrest and fractious relationships in the EU.
Steve Roycroft, CEO of RANE, says that, “In the upcoming year, RANE analysts will be focused on assessing the risk landscape in the wake of COVID-19, as well as arming clients with the geopolitical intelligence they need to address a range of significant, material risks as we enter 2021. Our Annual Forecast provides foundational insights into these risks and identifies opportunities for future action.”
Other primary drivers of global geopolitical risk in 2021 include great power competition among the US, China, and Russia. As recent nation-state hacks of SolarWinds, FireEye, and other businesses demonstrate, cybersecurity will continue to be a major geopolitical consideration.
The Biden administration will maintain an aggressive stance on China, but it will attempt to build a more cohesive international alliance against it. A key focus of the Biden administration will be on China's tech sector, however, it will be less focused on targeting specific companies, preferring instead to target broad sectors. In the South China Sea, both the Philippines and Vietnam will increasingly reach out to the United States for cooperation.
The US will reopen talks with Iran in early 2021. But Iran's recent passage of a law is likely to force the incoming Biden administration’s hand on the nuclear issue;
And a global push in 2021 to establish attainable medium-term emissions targets by both national governments and corporations.
RANE’s complete 2021 Annual Forecast is now available on Worldview.Stratfor.com.
RANE (Risk Assistance Network + Exchange) is a network-based risk intelligence company. We connect risk and security professionals to critical insights and expertise, enabling them to more efficiently address their most pressing challenges and drive better risk management outcomes. RANE members receive exclusive access to community-driven risk intelligence and a range of support services and risk management programs. Earlier in 2020, RANE acquired Stratfor, the world's leading geopolitical intelligence platform, to enable organizations to more confidently navigate an increasingly complex international environment.
For more information, contact:
Join the largest community of risk professionals and learn more about our scalable approach to mitigating risk and threats.