On Jan. 6, RANE Worldview published its 2025 Annual Forecast containing our predictions for 2025. This piece is designed to complement our forecasts by focusing on top risks that could emerge over the course of the year and have a major impact on organizations and/or their operations. This report highlights two main categories of risks: high-impact risks that, while having low probability, are excluded from the annual forecast but could have significant implications and trends already covered in the annual forecast but presented here in a more extreme nature.
Risk: Iran Becomes Much More Aggressive
Iran escalates aggressively, targeting regional oil and gas infrastructure and exiting the nuclear non-proliferation treaty or signaling nuclear ambitions following Israeli or U.S. attacks on its nuclear or hydrocarbon sectors. Iran and allied militias in Iraq and Yemen resume attacks on critical Gulf oil facilities, such as Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq and Ras Tanura sites, Kuwait's Mina al Ahmadi terminal, and infrastructure in Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Disruption of oil tanker traffic in the Persian Gulf through ship detentions or explosive devices would have global repercussions, straining a stagnant 2025 global economy. Escalation might also prompt physical attacks on office buildings in Gulf cities like Abu Dhabi, Doha and Dammam, as well as deeper into Saudi Arabia in Jeddah and Riyadh. In this scenario, organizations should prepare evacuation plans, address local staff safety and strategize for crisis scenarios.
Risk: Ukraine Ramps Up Daring Operations in Russia
Ukraine significantly ramps up activity inside Russia and Belarus, carrying out frequent assassinations and attacks on critical Russian infrastructure and political sites. In response, Russia expands its sabotage campaign in Europe, blaming NATO countries for enabling Ukraine's attacks. Russian operatives carrying out more frequent arson, explosives and other attacks in Europe, targeting critical infrastructure networks, such as energy systems and subsea communications cables, as well as targeting corporations and executives, including defense contractors supplying weapons to Ukraine, who are perceived as supporting the country. Russia-backed attacks in Europe impact economic growth, disrupt supply chains, hinder service delivery and undermine political stability across the Continent. In this scenario, organizations should map out what assets of theirs, if any, are the likeliest to be targeted, consider increasing security measures at such facilities, and increase executive protection, particularly if they operate in sensitive industries. Organizations should evaluate critical infrastructure in their areas of operation to identify vulnerabilities and develop contingency plans to address potential service disruptions.
Risk: The United States Moves Quickly on All Tariffs, Helping Trigger Global Recession
The United States follows through with a blanket 10% tariff on all imports and additional tariffs of 60% on China and 25% on Mexico and Canada, and most countries retaliate with similarly sized tariffs. High tariffs, coupled with a significant economic slowdown or crisis in China and/or Europe, trigger a global recession that is further intensified by these tariffs, leading most developing countries into a period of severe stagflation with high unemployment by late 2025 or early 2026. Many multinational corporations are already preparing for increased tariffs under Trump’s administration, but in this scenario, organizations face significantly higher tariffs, coupled with sharply reduced consumer and client spending power, leading to a substantial decline in sales volumes for numerous businesses. Organizations should be considering contingency plans to deal with a scenario with significantly lower demand and significantly higher prices, as many of the contingency plans in place to deal with high tariffs, such as stockpiling resources or boosting investment into alternative production locations, can create new risks if an organization's turnover is significantly lower, leading to inventory pileup and/or higher borrowing needs to fund projects.
Risk: China Implements De Facto Blockade or Quarantine on Taiwan
China increases the scope and frequency of military exercises around Taiwan, which significantly disrupts Taiwan's maritime access for a months long period of time. China's de facto blockade on Taiwan causes a significant disruption to the Taiwanese economy and its crucial semiconductor and electronics industries, disrupting the global supply chain for those goods. While semiconductors and electronics can be flown out of Taiwan, air freight cannot replace the import of all inputs needed for the industry, such as equipment and energy products, therefore causing a disruption nonetheless. Organizations dependent on semiconductors and electronics produced in Taiwan — or produced elsewhere using components from Taiwan — would see a disruption in supplies reminiscent of the 2022-23 semiconductor shortage. Organizations can mitigate this risk by increasing the slack in their supply chains with boosted stockpiling and continuing to work to accelerate the diversification away from Taiwan to other countries for similar products, if available. While higher stockpiles cannot fully mitigate the risks that a Taiwan war would cause, they can reduce the risks of some intermittent supply disruptions that a de facto blockade or quarantine through military exercises can cause.
Risk: Climate Change Causes Significant Disruption to Operations
Natural disasters intensified by climate change remain a potent and growing risk to organizations. Natural disasters impact nearly every region of the world, including via prolonged droughts, more destructive earthquakes, flooding and extreme weather events. Many of these disasters are becoming more frequent or intensified due to climate change. Organizations need to proactively monitor their supply chains, operations, and supplier networks for potential natural disasters. This includes developing response plans for likely disasters in specific regions and keeping a close watch on ongoing events, such as Southern Africa's persistent drought, which may continue or worsen in the coming year. While most natural disasters are localized or regionalized events, like droughts, the risk remains high for major supply chain disruptions that affect global or regional trade, such as low levels of water affecting the Panama Canal and Rhine River in recent years, causing a disruption to shipping through those vital maritime arteries. Mitigation strategies for companies should include proactively preparing shipping and supplier contingency plans in the event that key shipping routes — such as the Rhine, Mississippi or other rivers, or drought-affected canals — become disrupted.
If you'd like to read the full overview of 2025 risks, you can download it here or visit our contact us page for more information.
