The unequal distribution of natural resources often shapes geopolitical patterns. Throughout history, competition for resources has sparked both conflict and trade, creating opportunities for development and growth in some areas while disadvantaged in others and influencing the pace and direction of technological advancements. Though rarely the direct cause of conflict, fresh water is one of the most important mineral resources, critical for agriculture, industry and domestic uses.
Water stress, characterized by the narrowing gap between available water resources and the demand for water use, is a growing challenge driven by urbanization, agricultural practices, mining and industry, and climate change.
Water stress contributes to social and political instability, food insecurity, and industrial, electricity, and transportation disruptions. In our recently released eBook, RANE looks at water stress from several different perspectives to better understand how water contributes to geopolitical shifts and changes, and to assess where new risks and opportunities may emerge.
According to the 2024 United Nations World Water Development Report, agriculture remains the dominant draw on freshwater resources, amounting to nearly 70% of human use, followed by industrial uses (around 20%) and domestic use (around 10%). While this balance is generally accurate on a global scale, it often varies significantly at the local level.
In high-income countries, industry accounts for nearly 40% of water withdrawal, while in low-middle and low-income countries, agriculture may account for nearly 90% of water usage. Thus, water stress and the more severe water scarcity have vastly different impacts in different regions of the world and even within individual countries.
While agriculture remains the largest single category of water consumption, urbanization has played a significant role in expanding water usage, with domestic water use increasing by some 600% between 1960 and 2014, according to a report by the World Resources Institute. Reduced river flows can impact the availability of water for urban uses and electricity production, adding additional social and economic risks.
Seasonal changes and increasing extremes of weather often impact agricultural water availability. Changing rainfall patterns can also impact the movement of grains and other crops along inland river networks, requiring either intensified dredging or a shift to more expensive rail transport for critical food commodities.
Industrial water use includes both electricity production (steam generation or cooling, or water use in mining and oil extraction) as well as in localized water-intensive industries themselves.
More direct industrial implications have been seen in recent years, from water availability for hydraulic fracturing in the oil and gas industry to the impacts of localized droughts on Taiwanese semiconductor fabrication plants. Frequently, water stress in urban areas forces governments to choose between domestic and industrial uses, each with its own economic, social and political implications.
Although water availability is rarely the primary trigger of full interstate conflict, increased water stress does play a significant secondary role in geopolitical competition and tension. Localized water disputes can escalate to draw in state security forces or lead to isolated conflicts and property and infrastructure damage.
Water stress can encourage large-scale migrations, often from rural to urban areas, and between developing and developed nations, contributing both to political and social stresses and to potential future urban water security issues. Water infrastructure, including supplies and treatment, has come under cyberthreat from state and non-state actors, raising concerns about overall infrastructure security and questions of equivalent responses when cyber action has physical consequences.
In our eBook, we look at water resources from political, economic, societal, security, and technological perspectives, seeking to highlight both critical regions and significant ways in which water stress and water availability will shape geological change. We focus on select regions and countries to show how similar stresses yield different results and drive different responses, solutions, or new problems. We consider broader questions related to the overall economic costs that water stress can place on national, regional, and the global economy, and how insufficient resources are being focused on water stress, which may have implications far from a localized water challenge. We look at technologies that may ease the water burden, and others that exacerbate, as well as the use of modern communication technologies to potentially disrupt or even destroy critical water infrastructure.
As with any natural resource, water presents a complex picture where not merely the relative availability but the geographic, economic, and social context amplifies the significance of stress. And what becomes clear is that the implications of water stress rarely remain confined to a single country or region - water’s importance to all aspects of human life means that risks and challenges quickly ripple through societies and economies, across borders, and around the world, presenting truly global geopolitical challenges.
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