The role of the cyber domain will continue to grow in the coming years as an integral component of geopolitical competition. As governments create different digital policies that align with their own state-level ideals and priorities, multilateral cyber norm development is likely to continue to stall, leading to an increasingly polarized digital realm where certain online freedoms are available in some jurisdictions and forbidden in others. The ongoing efforts by leading governments like the United States and China to influence other countries' approach towards cyberspace will further accelerate a polarized cyber domain in the coming years as these superpowers use various carrots and sticks to drive their vision for cyberspace.

Meanwhile, growing competition between the U.S. and China – coupled with a general rise of tensions between the West and countries like China, Iran, North Korea and Russia – will also manifest in an increasingly contentious digital landscape where damaging cyber campaigns occur more frequently and with greater sophistication. To this end, under President Trump, the U.S. appears poised to take a more offensive approach against adversaries in cyberspace.

Referring to the highly sophisticated Chinese state-backed cyber threat group dubbed "Volt Typhoon," which has compromised broad swaths of U.S. critical infrastructure and government networks, Trump's incoming National Security Adviser, Michael Waltz, said in an interview with CBS News on Dec. 15, 2024, that, "We need to start going on offense and start imposing, I think, higher costs and consequences to private actors and nation-state actors that continue to steal our data, that continue to spy on us, and that even worse, with the Volt Typhoon penetration, that are literally putting cyber time bombs on our infrastructure."

This expected shift into a more offensive U.S. cyber posture will also elevate the role of the cyber domain in geopolitical dynamics as governments seek to confront adversaries' cyber threat activity in a more explicit manner beyond current defensively-focused efforts to deter threats via improved cyber defenses and "name and shame" perpetrators. More aggressive cyber postures between great powers will also elevate tensions, open the door to escalations, and invite miscalculations as countries navigate the uncertain rules of operations in cyberspace – all of which will make for a riskier cyber environment that could easily spill over into real-world, kinetic violence.  

As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its fourth year, Russian hybrid warfare tactics are also sure to continue and aim to blur the line between state and nonstate threat activity that enables the Kremlin to hide behind a layer of plausible deniability and avoid Western attribution. Russian online influence operations are also certain to target a range of key Western elections in countries – including Australia, Canada, Germany, Japan and Poland – to seek to undermine democratic processes, promote political instability and usher in more Kremlin-friendly candidates. As noted by former U.S. Senate Intelligence Chair Mark Warner (D-VA) in an Oct. 19 interview with Politico, "Russian malign actors target more than just U.S. elections — and have made a concerted effort to shape outcomes in elections of key U.S. partners, using many of the same techniques and tactics."

A major variable relevant to the future development of the digital realm will be the advancement of artificial intelligence, which has already begun to accelerate the pace and scope of operations in cyberspace on both the offensive and defensive fronts. In the context of geopolitics, AI tools will feature in governments' development of homegrown offensive cyber capabilities, namely, in their state-sponsored campaigns that seek to bolster national interests to gather classified government intelligence and steal sensitive corporate data. At a granular level, AI tools will become instrumental in bolstering a range of threat activities, including vulnerability exploitation, malware development, and intrusion tactics like phishing and social engineering.

At the same time, AI advancements will play a role on the opposite end of the spectrum, increasingly contributing to defensive efforts, including proactive vulnerability detection and patching, as well as enhanced endpoint detection and response mechanisms. In addition to bolstering governments' protection of domestic networks and data against adversaries, collaborative tools and information-sharing initiatives will further provide a role for AI in cyber diplomacy and cooperation.

As AI tools become more advanced, governments will also seek to extend norm-building and regulatory initiatives to AI. However, as already seen, competing visions for AI are likely merely to further embroil the emerging technology in governments' competition for influence. As noted by UN Secretary-General António Guterres in remarks to the Security Council on Dec.19, "The 'AI arms race' creates fertile ground for misunderstanding, miscalculation and mistakes. AI-enabled cyberattacks could cripple a country's critical infrastructure and paralyze essential services. Most critically, AI is eroding the fundamental principle of human control over the use of force… Let's be clear: the fate of humanity must never be left to the 'black box' of an algorithm."

Taken together, cyberspace has already become deeply interwoven into the geopolitical landscape, and its role will only continue to grow over the next several years. From augmenting the offensive cyber strategies of governments backing sophisticated threat actors to developing countries seeking to advance their regional influence, the cyber domain will be pivotal to achieving a range of end-goals. While governments will seek to maximize their ability to leverage cyber activities for their own objectives, jurisdictions will also seek to implement controls for cyberspace through regulatory initiatives that offset adversarial campaigns. While there will be space for some cooperation among like-minded governments, overall, the growing role of cyberspace in geopolitics portends further regulatory balkanization, offensive competition and a turbulent environment for organizations to navigate.

‍Download the report overview - then click here to learn more about RANE’s forecasting capabilities and our actionable risk intelligence solutions.

‍

Follow Hayley Benedict on LinkedIn here

Follow Ali Plucinski on LinkedIn here.‍