"'We were always going to get something like this,' said Matthew Orr, lead Eurasia analyst at risk intelligence firm Rane, who described Moldova’s current pro-EU government — in power since 2021 — as unprecedented and a threat to the Russian regime...

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This has frustrated Moscow, which 'considers Moldova in its sphere of influence, as it did Ukraine and all other former Soviet states,' said Orr...

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'President Sandu has been warning about these risks for months now,' said Orr. 'What’s different now is that it may feel it has a better ability to stand up to Russia,' he added, noting increasing EU support and the passing of a tough winter...

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It is not yet clear how Recean will differ from his predecessor, but Orr said it is likely he will aim to strengthen ties with Western allies and reduce the continued influence of Russian money in Moldova...

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Orr said he was skeptical that separatist groups in Transnistria, or the 1,500 Russian troops stationed there, would have the military might to destabilize Moldova or be used as a lever against Ukraine. Similarly, he said, it is unlikely that Moscow would pre-emptively cut off gas supplies to Moldova, lest it should jeopardize support from its backers in Transnistria.

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However, he noted that Russian spies could use Transnistria as an outpost to collect intelligence on Ukraine.

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Read the full CNBC article by Karen Gilchrist here.